The Serbian Crisis

   
It was another great irony of the war that the spark that would set off the normally volatile Balkans came from the very place that usually kept it relatively stable. The single biggest point of friction between Nicholas of Russia and Franz Joseph of Austria had always been the Balkans. This was most often because Nicholas considered himself the protector of the region while these lands were squarely in the Hapsburg backyard. The people who lived there were primarily Slavic and, as Nicholas reasoned, so was he. Of course, Russia did have valid security and economic reasons for their constant medaling in the Balkans but, it would seem, that pride far outweighed anything tangible.
Now that the war was going on two years, Russia was starting to experience the first real troubles of waging a prolonged and modern war. None of these reasons had anything to do with the military situation on the front lines. If anything, Russia seemed to be doing quite well. Her armies had stopped the Germans in central Poland and had even managed to grab more Polish territory at the expense of Austria-Hungary. In fact, the seizure of Krakow, Przemysl, and Lemberg were the only large cities to change hands, so far, on any front of the war. Nicholas had good reason to be optimistic.
The problem that Nicholas was unaware of and his generals and advisors were only slowly coming to realize was that the Russian Empire’s greatest weaknesses were not military. Before the war, no military planners had considered such factors as social, ethnic, and economic to be of any great significance. None of them had ever thought that the war could possibly go on this long and, in their defense, there was no precedent for the situation they were dealing with. This war was most definitely an on the job training situation for all involved.
While much is made of the polyglot nature of the Austria-Hungary, the truth is that the multi-ethnic problems were common in most empires of the time and these were problems that no one had figured out how to deal with in peace, let alone during the rigors of general war. When the war first began, these problems seemed to just completely vanish. It appears as if most people were willing to put aside the squabbles with their neighbors to support the larger state they happened to be living in. As the war progressed, and the casualty lists only kept getting longer, the ethnic and social problems began to resurface with a vengeance.
To be fair to the Russians, in the past, they had actually tried to act responsibly when it came to dealing with the minorities of their empire. There were several recorded uprisings, strikes, and mob activities during the time periods when their harvests were bad but, they also took actions of a more progressive nature to deal with the matters. The imperial government actually appointed commissions to study the problems behind the strife. If you read their reports you will find these were not dog and pony shows. They actually made solid recommendations to St Petersburg. The problem was not with the government per se. The problem was that Nicholas simply ignored the reports.
It is a popular notion to believe that Nicholas was a tyrannical, un-sympathetic, and greedy dictator but, this was not really the case. The truth was that, on a personal level, Nicholas was a very warm and caring man. All of the personal writings we have about him support the fact that he was hopelessly devoted to his family and most people found him quite personable. The major flaws that Nicholas seemed to suffer from were two fold. He had a very outmoded view of society and, while that was certainly not uncommon for the aristocracy of his day, in his case it was coupled with his most serious flaw. Nicholas simply did not know how to run a government and he thought he did. When you find yourself living under this kind of leadership it really no longer matters what the personal qualities of your leader are, they might as well be tyrannical if they are incompetent.
The Russian Empire was just squeaking by, with their new Czar at the helm, before the war. Now that the conflict was starting to put pressure on the civilian infrastructure the patience, demonstrated by the bureaucracy, for civil strife was gone. Nicholas did not seem to grasp this but, many of his ministers did. He might not have listened to them but, they began to put their own plans in action to keep this situation from becoming critical. Naturally, the logical step was to win the war and it was in the Balkans that they saw this possible.
Even when Turkey was nominally allied with Russia the relationship was shaky at best. The simple fact was that the Young Turk movement was never fully in control of the Ottoman Empire and the two allies were even shooting at each other on their mutual border. The Turkish military never subscribed to an alliance with Russia, no matter what the Young Turks might have thought, and because of this the Russian Black Sea fleet was never allowed to pass through the Dardanelle straights. The most powerful naval assets of the Russian Empire had remained bottled up in their inland sea.
The only Russian port of any significance, accessible year round, and home of their most powerful fleet was Sevastopol. It might as well not even exist as long as the Turks controlled Constantinople and the Dardanelles. What the Russian General staff understood was that, in order to win the war, they would have to sortie their fleet into the Mediterranean. Once there, the Black Sea Fleet could add their strength to that of the French Navy and it would be more than the British could hope to counter. This would never happen as long as the Turks controlled the straights so, a plan was put in motion to rectify that.
The Russians had been quietly massing an army in the southwestern Ukraine for some time. This had not been missed by German military intelligence but, it was thought to most likely be a strategic reserve. At the worst it was thought to be nothing more than a simple threat to keep more Austrian troops stationed away from the front in the non critical region of Transylvania. The Germans could not see that this army had anywhere to really go and as long as they were not shooting at any one in Poland, the Russians were more than welcome to keep them there.
The main problem the Russians had faced up till the spring of 1900 was that German Intelligence was fundamentally correct. These troops did not have anywhere to go because the only possible front was the Balkans and the political leadership in that area was firmly committed to remaining on the sidelines of this war. The Balkan nations were still recovering from their last set of little wars and the various leaders in the regions did not appear too anxious for a rematch and, in particular, a fight that would now include their much larger neighbors to the north. What the Russians knew and the Germans did not was that the political leadership in the Balkans were not the only voices that counted.
King Alexander I  was only sixteen years old when he decided to dismiss his regents and rule the Kingdom of Serbia by himself. His father, Milan, had voluntarily abdicated a few years earlier and then went in to exile for some time. By 1900 Milan was back and had reconciled most of the differences with his son but, the now twenty-four year old boy was still ruling by absolute decree. Alexander seemed to be preoccupied with the personal intrigues of his own family, along with his status as a playboy, rather than foreign affairs. After Serbia was soundly defeated by the Bulgarians, Alexander not only seems to have decided to avoid wars but, to ignore them altogether. The current world war was no exception.
This might not have been the wisest choice for Alexander because his kingdom was very typical of the region in that it’s borders were arbitrary at best. Despite Serbian claims, Montenegro was effectively independent, Kosovo was largely autonomous, Macedonia was completely up for grabs, Bosnia was firmly under the thumb of Austria, Albania was legally ruled by the Turks but, in reality, it was in anarchy. The sad fact was that half of what appeared on the map as Alexander’s kingdom was currently occupied by the Bulgarians. You could almost say that Alexander was really little more than the mayor of Belgrade except that the real mayor might take offense at such a suggestion.  
Alexander’s military was not happy with the situation and it was only the appointment of his father, Milan, as commander and chief of the armed forces, that kept the Serbian military from rebelling. Milan was a competent leader and he launched many reforms that made him very popular. He had no wish to regain the throne even if he did not exactly see eye to eye with his son. This kept the situation in check and bought Serbia a certain amount of stability. This was not to last and it was the news of Kitchener’s Mozambique expedition that would be the final straw.
Dragutin Dimitrijevic was a young Serbian Captain that, ironically, had a career that very much paralleled that of his king. The two men were born only three days apart and they both began their public service at the tender young age of sixteen. The similarities ended there however. Dimitrijevic was quite talented at his job, charismatic, and was very deeply committed to the idea of a greater Serbia. It was something that his monarch seemed to have lost any interest in. Perhaps that was what drove Dimitrijevic into the shadowy world of secret societies and international espionage. We now know that the young Captain was head over heels in both. He had not only joined but, taken over command of, a group of radical, pro ethnic Serbs, known as the Black Hand. He also became a paid agent of the Russian military.
Unfortunately, we are not completely certain exactly how deeply Dimitrijevic was involved with the Russians. His file, maintained by Russian security services, has survived but, only the folder itself. There is nothing inside it. Whatever was there has long since been removed but, we can surmise, that the very existence of the folder proves a connection and the lack of papers proves that the contents were potentially sensitive. Beyond that, Dimitrijevic’s actions and timing speaks volumes about what those papers probably did say.
It was no secret that, from the very start of the war, Dimitrijevic had used his position on the General Staff to agitate for Serbian intervention. He was certainly not alone in that many young Serbian officers saw the war as a chance to “liberate” the Bosnian Serbs from the hands of their Hapsburg oppressors. Milan, as commander in chief, was able to keep a handle on the situation until the double blow came, one from Kitchener and the other from his own son. The violation of neutral territory in Africa was no harder felt anywhere than in the Balkans where borders were more suggestions than reality. Now that the British had opened that door, moderates such as Milan, could no longer argue that neutrality was their best protection. It now appeared as if staying on the sidelines was only inviting an attack.
Then came the first rumblings of Alexander’s latest conquest. It was not the kind of kingly conquest that one wants to see from a mighty ruler. It was Alexander’s latest bedroom conquest, one of his mothers hand maidens, and now he wanted to marry her. It had not become public knowledge yet but, Alexander’s liaison and intentions were widely known in the inner circles of government. When he announced plans for a national celebration in the summer of 1900, there was not a single official in Belgrade that did not know why. Alexander was planning on making his engagement, to Draga Masin, public.
This was all that Dimitrijevic needed to make his move. Milan was effectively neutralized from stopping the young Captain who had now won over the support of the majority of the junior officers in the army. Alexander was arrested and the only thing that kept him from being executed was his father who still commanded a great deal of respect. Apparently, Dimitrijevic was hoping that Milan would agree to reclaim the throne and lead Serbia in a glorious war of ethnic union.
They reached a curious compromise that left Alexander on the throne but, in prison. His would be queen, Draga, had also been arrested but, quickly forgotten about. She would later be released, would never marry, and die in obscurity many years after the war. Milan would remain at his current post but, for all practical purposes, he would act as de facto head of state in cooperation with a Prime Minister that Dimitrijevic would later appoint.
Without any official declaration, this effectively put Serbia at war with Austria-Hungary. Franz Joseph was all too aware of the situation in Belgrade and intimately familiar with the personalities involved. This is not to say that there was no declaration. When it came, not two days after Alexander was deposed, it brought about, in Belgrade, all of the fanfare and promises that had been seen in the cities of the major powers almost two years before. This included promises from the Russian ambassador who assured the Serbs that help was on the way.
Fortunately for Franz Joseph, the enemies of Austria Hungary, new and old alike, had many problems. Dimitrijevic and his conspirators had been so busy, trying to get their nation in the war, that they had barely given any thought as to what they would do once they had accomplished their goals. They promised the cheering crowds, in Belgrade, that they would liberate the oppressed Serbs to the north (translation: they would conquer Bosnia) but, not only did they lack any substantial resources, they had no plans on how to accomplish this task.
Meanwhile, the Russians had their own problems. There would be many that would plague them during the Balkan campaign but, at the moment, their main problem had one name, Romania. Unlike the Serbs, the Russians had carefully thought the matter out but, unfortunately for them, the Romanian situation was far more complicated than they had anticipated. Romania was, for the Russians at least, the key to the entire region because without the use of their territory, the Russians had no way of launching, let alone sustaining, any military efforts in the Balkan peninsula. Up till the Russians found themselves obligated to support their new ally, Serbia, the Russians had taken Romanian cooperation for granted. That did not happen as they thought it might.