The Neutrals


   “There is no greater an excuse than victory,” was a term that was penned by Winston Churchill. While he wrote of this long after the war, there are very few who doubt that it was his time serving in the army of Horatio Kitchener that led him to this conclusion. The reasons should be more than obvious and the one example that shines above all others is Kitchener’s invasion of the neutral Portuguese territory of Mozambique. His victory over the Boers, as well as his disruption of their supply lines, did result in the lifting of the sieges of the British border posts in South Africa. As Kitchener had predicted, while he proposed his adventure to his fellow officers, the Portuguese did not respond to the violation of their territory.
On the surface, Kitchener pulled off quite a coup and was even more popular, back home, than ever before. Indeed, Portugal not only failed to respond but, they bent over backwards to make sure they would not have to. The reality was that Portugal had very little control over their colony that was managed exclusively by a private corporation with a royal charter. One of the most lasting effects of Kitchener’s invasion was that Portugal would eventually revoke the charter of the Mozambique Company but, during the war, this meant very little. The corporation was in the habit of ignoring edicts from Lisbon and they did so once again. The entire matter would not be settled till many years after the war. For the time being, in Mozambique, it was business as usual.
The more important factor was the pre war perception of Portugal being a puppet of Great Britain. While it is very true that the British had considerable influence in Lisbon, they were not as in control as it appeared but, unfortunately, in politics, sometimes appearances are all that matter. What Kitchener did not seem to take into account, and his bosses realized, was that the fall out from invading neutral territory went well beyond Anglo-Portuguese relations. It is ironic that Kitchener’s complete disregard for the complexity of the situation is probably what saved his command more than even his popularity at home.
Since the outset of hostilities, both alliances were engaged in a furious diplomatic war to coax the worlds neutral states to either commit to their cause or, at the least, deny their resources to the other. So far, Britain had been slowly winning this conflict. The Confederate States were already involved in a pre-war military alliance with Great Britain, so, there was never any question that the CSA would go to war. The Confederacy was not a world power but, they were a regional one and crucial to British defense plans in North America.
Britain also managed to coax another regional power in to the conflict, very early on. Japan was proving to be just as critical in the Pacific where British forces had experienced an early string of military set backs. Meanwhile, Austria-Hungary had managed to coax Imperial Mexico into the war and gave the United States yet another front to fight on. Finally there was the Turkish Ottoman Empire. Even before the war it was rapidly destabilizing and the onset of hostilities had not helped. It had begun the conflict on the side of France even if it was waging an unofficial war against France’s ally, Russia. Kitchener’s defeat of the “Young Turk” army in the Sinai had caused a factional shift, put the Sultan back in power, and caused Turkey to switch sides.
The advantages of these diplomatic victories were long since spent. The CSA failed to achieve their pre war objectives and were now locked in a grinding fifteen hundred mile long siege with it’s larger northern neighbor. Japan was equally bogged down in a stagnant, and quite bloody, battle with Russo-American forces on the Korean peninsular. If anything, Japan was now proving to be more of a liability, to Britain, than an asset.
The Pacific Fleet of the Royal Navy was now almost exclusively engaged in operations to safeguard the supply lines of a resource poor Japan, not to mention, supporting the Meiji Government’s armies on the Asian continent. Japan had been building up their own fleet but, it had not yet grown to the size they truly needed. Their capital prewar vessels were, also, almost exclusively second hand vessels that had been retired from the Royal Navy. No such vessels were now for sale and this left Japan hopelessly dependent on Britain for the rest of the war.
Most other countries had done their best to avoid becoming embroiled in the conflict. Some, such as Denmark, had even quietly ignored the blatant violations of their territorial neutrality. In this particular case it was the establishment of small British outposts in Greenland that were used to aid shipping that attempted to run the American blockade of Canada. The Mozambique invasion would cause this situation to turn critical for little Denmark, and several other nations besides.
The violation of Portuguese territory put many of these neutral powers in a very awkward position. It drove home the point that their only recourse, to such military adventures as Kitchener’s, was to join one of the two belligerent alliances and that was the situation they were ultimately trying to avoid. Their only other option was to accept the violation of their territories or possessions and, in most cases, domestic politics would not allow for this. Most of these small nations had hawk and dove factions like in any other nation and Kitchener had inadvertently caused a shift in nearly all of these, the world over.
As with the case of Denmark, a nation that had quite possibly the strongest of dove factions, it put them directly in the crosshairs of the belligerent powers. Denmark found they could no longer ignore British activity in and around Greenland. There was very little that they could do about it militarily but, their strategic position on the Baltic and closer ties with France and Russia could threaten Britain’s ally, Germany. The Kaiser did not wait for that to happen and, before summer, German troops were marching into Denmark. The Danes did not resist the occupation of their country and, curiously enough, they did not even declare war on anyone. They quietly accepted German occupation for the time being.
In Britain, the German invasion was not met with great fanfare and caused even more headaches for the Salisbury Cabinet. It also complicated an even more sensitive situation with the Netherlands that also shared a common border with Germany. Both sides were very interested in the Netherlands but, not so much for their status as a continental power since, in that respect, they were anything but. Holland’s single biggest asset were her colonies and, in particular, Indonesia. Not only did the Dutch East Indies hold a strategic position in the South Pacific but, they were also a major producer of many raw goods that were highly coveted by both sides. The most important of these was rubber.
The invasion of Denmark caused Holland to threaten suspension of diplomatic ties with Germany, however, they subtly suggested that they did not wish to take a belligerent line with the Anglo-German alliance. The Netherlands did not threaten to suspend relations with any of Germany’s allies and this was a clear sign that they intended to keep walking the same tight rope that they had been. It was a situation that London could live with until it became clear that other required actions might push Holland into the Triple Entente.
This weighed heavily on the minds of the Salisbury Government. Holland did not have much of an army to bring to the table and the German’s could most likely, very easily, stomp the country flat in a matter of weeks. It would not matter though, because, Britain would be forced to divert valuable resources in order to neutralize Indonesia and secure her precious rubber plantations. It would also, undoubtedly, lead to the involvement of yet another neutral power that Britain and Germany wished to keep that way.
Where Holland’s strategic position gave her negotiating power, Belgium found that her position was having the opposite effect. Indeed, before the war, Von Schlieffen had argued for a flanking attack, through Belgium, in order to defeat the French. While Schlieffen had ultimately been over ruled by his rival Waldersee, this did not mean that such ideas were confined only to Germany. The French had also toyed with the idea of invading Belgium but, up till now, had failed to do so for a variety of reasons.
President For Life Boulanger had chosen to run his nation from his military headquarter at the Sedan. He only traveled back to Paris (and anywhere else for that matter) if it was absolutely necessary. His Generals had been visiting the headquarters and feverishly arguing with Boulanger about invading Belgium. Many of these men were the same Generals commanding the armies that could not break the German defenses around Metz and Strasbourg.
There were merits, to the French General’s arguments, and concerns. The Franco-German border at Alsace-Loraine was very small and the geography did not allow the French to mass enough troops in front of either fortified city in order to make a decisive attack. The small nature of the theater, all by itself, also allowed the Germans to use a minimal number of troops to hold back all of France’s army. This meant that the Germans were free to concentrate the bulk of their armies against France’s ally, Russia. An invasion of Belgium would not only allow a flanking attack on the city of Metz but, it would force the Germans to commit more resources to a larger front.
In this matter, Georges Boulanger showed an uncharacteristic amount of pragmatism. His argument seems to be perfectly valid as well and it all hinged around, once again, geography. An invasion of Belgium would open up a larger front but, this advantage was largely off set by the terrain. The German-Belgium border was a region that was mostly, heavily forested, small hills that were known as the Ardennes. It was the most perfect terrain for slowing down an army or defending. The German’s had easier access to the region than did the French and Boulanger feared the Germans would overrun the region before his own troops could.
The only advantage that would be had by a Franco invasion of the low countries would be if Holland were invaded in conjunction with Belgium. The low flat terrain of southwestern Holland would be ideal for marching around the German flank an into their industrial heartland, the Ruhr River Valley. Unfortunately, once again, terrain was not working in France’s favor. Here it was a simple matter of distance. The German’s were ultimately closer and, in this scenario, they would not have to fight through the Belgian defenses at Liege and Antwerp. Once this picture evolved, as Boulanger saw it, he would also be facing the same strategic nightmare, of having to subdue the Dutch East Indies, as his British enemies. So, for now, he would only invade Belgium if Holland, first, joined the war on the side of the Triple Entente.
Again, the Mozambique situation was threatening to change the very balance of the war in theaters far from it’s shores. The only saving grace was that most of the smaller powers in Europe were doing their best to keep both sides pleased, and by extension, maintain their neutral status. It was becoming increasingly difficult in the post Mozambique environment. Of course, that was only in northwestern Europe. There were other nuetrals who were only biding their time and waiting for the right opportunity to enter the war. The side they would choose had little to do with sympathies and more to do with how much they could get for their efforts.