The More Things Change

By the time that Taft returned to Lake Geneva, several significant events had unfolded across the globe and he was certain that one or two other unofficial diplomats might come calling on his door. He was a bit surprised that his dinner invitations remained somewhat scarce. What Taft was unaware of was that, due to those events, David Lloyd George was not even in Switzerland at the time. He had been recalled to London where he was ‘consulting’ with the cabinet. That was the official story for the unofficial diplomatic mission. There is no hard evidence concerning Lloyd’s recall but, given that he never actually met with the cabinet, it’s more likely that they simply did not want him talking with Taft, at that time. Balfour and Chamberlain had more than enough motivation to do this.

Despite the fact that the armies were moving for the first time since the beginning of the war, the fact was that each side had made breakthroughs at roughly the same time. It was yet another case of balance that left the issue still in the undecided column. It was a fact that all of the national leaders of the time were firmly aware of and, for men like Balfour and Roosevelt, it left them calculating the possible outcomes of some very separate theaters of war and guessing as to where it would leave everyone in the spring of 1902. While the Russians were in a head long retreat it was fairly certain they could rally and hold the Germans once more, if not after surrendering a good deal of territory in the process. The Russians had land to spare and, for that matter, so did the Confederate States.

The CSA was not in quite as desperate a situation as Imperial Russia but, no one doubted that they were quickly headed in that direction. This may have been why Wilson did not seek an audience with Taft in the early fall of 1901. To do so would have appeared to be desperation and the Confederacy still had her allies, although, at the time, it was unclear how much help they could be. One has to wonder how nervous this was making Wilson and, not to mention, Joe Wheeler who was back in Richmond. The fact was that Britain was being unusually silent and we do know that Wheeler was reading this as a message from Balfour that basically said, “don’t get any ideas. We are the big kids on the block.”

Wheeler had more than enough experience when it came to dealing with his British allies and understood the inner workings of their government, particularly when it came to dealing with his nation. The average Confederate may have had a great deal of animosity when it came to their cousins in the US but, this is not to say that they lacked a certain amount for their British cousins as well. Any suggestion that the CSA even appeared to be a British Commonwealth was outright insulting to most southerners and this included Wheeler as well. That was why the silence and diplomatic double speak he was getting was so troubling at a time like this. Wheeler understood it was due to British concerns over the state of their Commonwealth and he wanted them to know that his nation was not a part of it.

Wheeler’s assumptions were fundamentally correct. The cabinet was not just concerned about the state of the Common Wealth, they had become quite paranoid over the matter. Oddly enough, this was not so much from the noise being made in places like Australia and New Zealand but, the silence that was coming from inside of India. The cabinet had completely misread the signs. They were well aware that the Indians now had a position of strength to negotiate from and could not imagine why nothing had been made of this. It made men like Chamberlin see ghosts in every shadow and some serious plans were made for how to deal with a rebellion in Britain’s crown jewel.

One might think that this would lead Britain’s wartime cabinet to a desire to end the conflict as early as possible but, it had the exact opposite effect. They felt that they now had to pull a clear victory out of the entire mess or, India would go over the cliff that they supposed it was teetering on. Anything else, as they saw it, would leave Britain having to fight another war, if not several smaller ones, after the big conflict ended. At this point, Britain simply was not strong enough to do this and, that was particularly true when they considered having to do so without the aid of their German allies. As time would prove, the cabinet was completely wrong about a great many things.

That would be in the future and we have to remember that men like Balfour and Chamberlin were not in a position to see that. We have to remember what it was they were calculating at that time. It was simple math and aptly provided by Wolseley and his statisticians at Pall Mall. When the numbers were crunched the situation that they got was this, the Allies could survive the loss of the Confederate States and the Entente would be severely handicapped by the loss of Russia. This put time on the side of the Allies and, if this plan had been followed thru, the war would have definitely continued into 1902 and possibly even 1903. Given the poor shape of the world in the Fall of 1901, there is no telling how much devastation this would have caused. Fortunately for the world, the cabinet was wrong about three very key facts.

Most of it had to do with the seasons and weather. Wolseley’s people were well aware that most operations inside of Russia were highly dependant on the weather. The rains had already slowed Moltke down to a snails pace and, once the snows set in he would come to a complete halt. They never considered the more moderate winters in the Confederate States where cooler weather was a blessing and not an obstacle. This meant that the United States, no longer hampered by Canadian Winters, could keep their operations at a maximum tempo while German troops remained huddled around fires in an attempt to keep from freezing to death. This would more than offset the fact that the CSA was in better shape than Russia.

There was also another situation boiling and one that was not completely over looked in London but, was definitely on the back burner. The situation in South Africa had stabilized but, the area had almost completely descended into anarchy. No one had done much to alleviate the troubles of the various territories and nations there but, no one felt really compelled to do so. They were calculating the area’s effects on the war and, as long as the situation remained stagnate, everyone outside of the South Africa was more than happy to let it remain in anarchy. The second basic assumption, that the war rooms missed, was that there were forces inside of South Africa who were not as content to starve to death as those in government halls were prepared to let them. This was followed by the third and final big overlook, here, it was not Autumn in South Africa, but rather, Springtime instead.

While there were those educated enough at Pall Mall to note the differences, between the northern and southern hemispheres, what they completely failed to grasp was the effects it had on the situation in South Africa. Traditionally, wars usually begin in the early autumn, not long after harvest when food stocks are at their highest. There were no excess food stocks in South Africa and there was virtually no one there who believed that the situation would change. What they did have to factor in was the condition of the grass lands since combatants, like the Boers, were largely dependent on cavalry. The best time to go on the offensive with such a force is in the spring when you can maximize your resources. This is exactly what happened in late 1901.

The Boers would not go into battle alone and this would be a direct result of the last, and possibly, the largest factor that was misread at Pall Mall. They completely ignored the Teddy Bear in the room. Roosevelt was obsessed with ending the war at this point and, while many have raised Theodore up to be some sort of saint, on this point, the truth was that he was as aware of the numbers as was Wolseley. The longer the war dragged on the worse the situation would become for the United States and France. That was why, when the South African situation presented itself, Theodore jumped on it with both feet.

Natal was an odd sort of place for a world wide offensive to begin, yet, that is exactly what happened. It was also a great irony that a world war, began by men who had white skin, would end because of the actions of those who did not. It was almost a prophetic statement of the century to come and there were none better suited to bring this about than the Zulu micro states of northern Natal. While Dinuzulu did not control most of Zululand he had the ability to do so if he could bring something to the table. While it was true that most of the leaders of the micro states supported the British, the reality was that most of their subjects did not. Even the support of the Zulu leadership was now wavering since aid from the British was dwindling by the month. The area was ripe for the picking and Roosevelt was more than prepared to give Dinuzulu a ladder.

Again, the single biggest problem that Roosevelt had was not with his enemies but, those who called him friend. While the Zulu might have been famous for using the stabbing spear, the truth was that this weapon was even on it’s way out in Shaka’s time. The throwing spear, that had been forbidden by Shaka, made a come back no sooner than he had died and, even more important, more than a few Zulu had firearms by the time of the war in 1879.

It is just a legend that the Zulu picked up and used the firearms of the fallen British at Isandlwana. This was actually not the case. The Zulu kingdom actually had many Impi’s that were equipped with firearms, by 1879, and most of those weapons were purchased privately by the individual Zulu’s. The point being that while the Assegai might have been a point of ceremonial pride with the Zulu, they were not married to the weapon when it came time to fight. In 1901 they wanted guns, they wanted a lot of them, and in particular they wanted the same kind that was being used by the Boers. These were the Colt and Winchester battle rifles that had been provided by the United States.

Kruger outright forbid such a transaction and communicated to Roosevelt that he would never allow such a thing. Roosevelt treated Kruger exactly like he did his own cabinet and ignored the man. The fact was that Zululand had it’s own coast line and Roosevelt did not need Kruger to makes such a thing happen. Roosevelt could not act alone, though, and he knew it. He did have one ally that he required the complete cooperation of in this endeavor and, as it so happened, France’s dark cloud turned out to have a very interesting a silver lining.