An Even Bigger Carrot

While Theodore Roosevelt would claim that his eventual policy was born in his days as Vice President, and there does seems to be at least some truth in these claims, it is most likely that he did not shape these incoherent thoughts into a more formalized strategy until his early days as commander and chief. We can use his own writings to prove this and, even more important, we can point to one event in particular that must have put it all into focus for Theodore. That would be the rapidly escalating crisis in Northern China that occurred on the heels of the Boxer uprising. This was very early on in the administration and, how Theodore would handle it, set a pattern in the White House that told everyone what to expect from the new chief executive.

Unlike the laconic Root, Theodore would seem like a bloodhound on a trail when he would hear of new developments from almost anywhere in the world. If he judged them important he would shove most other issues aside, and personally push things along until he had the situation moving in a direction that he favored. Oddly enough, this first great crisis would be accidentally, and unknowingly, set in motion by Theodore himself. Roosevelt had never made any secret that he thought the only way America was going win any respect was that if they could play as equals in other peoples backyards. It was what the Europeans had been doing for centuries and, as far as Theodore was concerned, America would have to as well.

It was this attitude that prompted Roosevelt to override orders from the war department and change the destination of two divisions that were now being diverted from the Vancouver front. Originally these forces had been destined for Kansas where General Shafter had wanted to mount a large, but diversionary, attack against Sequoya in order to tie down Confederate reserves for yet another push against Fort Bragg. Roosevelt made no secret that he thought the entire operation was wasteful and, even if successful, would be useless in the larger scheme of the war. This was an important milestone for the United States.

Since 1861, the entire foreign policy of the United States had revolved around one central theme, that being, the existence of the Confederate States of America. For the first time since before the administration of the first President Lincoln, an American president was deliberately choosing to pursue a policy that, in no way, was connected to the CSA. Theodore believed that America needed larger, more noble, goals. He argued this with his top soldier, General Shafter, who was making a case that the basic war strategy required taking the entire Mississippi river valley. That meant breaking Fort Bragg.

No one knows if Roosevelt actually realized the significance of sending those divisions to China or, if it suddenly occurred to him as he ranted at Shafter. Either way, the idea did occur to Theodore and several journals recorded his exact words, “general, we have been fighting this war to achieve goals that have become entirely irrelevant. It is time that we own up to this fact and pursue the goals that are now required, that being a peace that we can live with.” Quite often another statement is attributed to this speech but, in reality, it was not until after the crisis in Shandong that Theodore said, “we’ve tried the stick, hell we’ve got the biggest stick on the block. What we need now is a bigger carrot.” The reason we can be sure this statement did not come till later was because, as Roosevelt did record, it was in dealing with the Chinese that he realized something else was lacking in the US War strategy.

This was not unique to the American Government. It is obvious when looking at all of the policies of the belligerents that they had forgotten any other options existed past the military card. It is likely that Roosevelt may never had thought of it if it had it not been for the unique problems presented in the Chinese theater of operations. In China, general global war was not enough to erase thousands of years of political intrigue and it continued right into the war. Once the Boxers had forced everyone’s hand, the west suddenly found itself being drawn in to this very complicated political situation, that they had to play in order to get things from their Chinese allies. Oddly enough, it would also play a part in dealing with outright enemies.

As noted before, when Japan learned that the US was going to attempt to reinforce their troops in Northern China, they became greatly concerned. They expressed this to their British allies but, Admiral Moore, hampered by orders from back home, stated there was little he could do to stop them. To try, might provoke another major sea battle that he had been expressly ordered to avoid. He was correct in his thinking because the new US commander in the region, Admiral George Dewey, had taken command with a new direction, under a new President.

While not exactly saying so, Roosevelt was encouraging his fleet commanders to be more aggressive despite the fact that it was not exactly welcomed news to those who were running the US Navy. They did their best to soften the orders but, Dewey still fully understood where his commander-n-chief was coming from. This situation left Dewey with far more options than did Moore and it made the arrival of US reinforcements all but guaranteed. In fact, the biggest thing standing in the way of this deployment was the battle between the President of the US, and his own General Staff who opposed it.

The Japanese were not the only ones feeling threatened by this deployment that would alter the situation in China. Ironically, the man feeling most threatened was the American General, Custer. Up till now, he had been the ranking US Army soldier in China and, suddenly, he discovered that one Lieutenant General and two Major Generals were on the way. While, technically speaking, Custer had always been under the command of a Navy Admiral, the fact is that he always acted as if he were the entire show and both Mahan and Dewey allowed the man his perks just so long as he did not go too overboard. There was very little for Custer to do up till now anyway. By this time he had only a little over three thousand men and, without the Russian Army, he could not do much of anything.

The Boxer Uprising was actually welcomed by Custer who found himself able to generate headlines again, however, it ended too quickly for his tastes. Custer was mostly responsible for the occupation of Peking and while there were plenty of disturbances there, Custer’s reputation amongst the Chinese, that of being dangerously insane, was enough to quell the majority of them with very little loss of life. The fighting was not enough to generate the headlines he needed. Now with reinforcements on the way, Custer realized he would not only be outranked by three others but, suddenly, he would only be one of nearly a dozen Brigadiers. It was a situation that he found unacceptable.

Fortunately for Custer, this situation created an ally from the least likely of sources. The Chinese General Jung-Lo, a cousin of Cixi, and initially a supporter of hers had come out in favor of the Guangxu Emperor not long after the Kansu Incident that had initially drawn Custer to Peking. Despite his change of allegiances, Jung-Lo was nominally a conservative and not that favorable to the new Emperor or the Americans. He cooperated with them to get what he wanted and, quite possibly, because his rival Prince Yuan was openly cooperating with the Germans in the Shandong Peninsula where he had recently declared himself Governor.

We now know that a great deal of Custer’s moves were due to his own far reaching strategy, that of one day becoming President. In this respect he was no different than Jung-Lo, who was looking to his own position after the war. To this Chinese General, his rival Yuan must have seemed like a bad weed. Yuan had first created a power base in Korea until it was lost to the Japanese. Then he began playing power broker in Peking, with direct access to the Forbidden City, until it was lost to the Americans.

Now, with Peking lost, Yuan simply moved one province to the south and set himself up as a warlord of sorts. The Germans, who occupied Kaichou Harbor at the start of the war, were looking for a Hong Kong styled lease of the peninsula and Yuan was more than happy to grant it to them as long as they helped him rebuild his army. This was not just with weapons. The Germans were also promising to build him a railroad from their port to the provincial capital of Jinan. This went beyond military support in that all of it would give Yuan economic and political clout of the kind that Jung Lo could not hope to counter unless he built his own alliances.

Here is where the change of leadership in Washington would make it’s first impact on the world. The obvious choice for Jung Lo, to seek support, was from Russia. The problem with them was that Nicholas was not very interested in negotiating with Chinese Generals. Up till now, the Americans had only been a little more giving on the matter but, it was obvious to Jung-Lo, that they only went so far as to meet their immediate needs concerning the occupation. It would be Custer’s little problem, and Roosevelt’s new policies, that would change the situation.

Root’s administration had been content to deal with the Emperor, only, and virtually ignored the fact that China was really ruled by her regional leaders. John Hay had also considered Jung-Lo to be less than trustworthy but, Roosevelt did not care. He was more than willing to deal with anyone who could make things happen. Jung-Lo got promises of small arms, ammunition, and even artillery. He also got cash up front and this was the spark that set the entire theater ablaze. A Sino-American Army would be marching south, towards Jinan, to scatter the forces of Prince Yuan who were building in the area.

Needless to say, neither Yuan nor his German allies were prepared for this move. If the American hand was weak, the German position was almost non existent. They had yet to even cement their control of Kaichou and the surrounding environs. The German ‘Governor’ of this new lease was a Danish born sailor by the name of Captain Carl Rosendahl. While he had always proved to be a competent sailor he was not quite up to the challenge of administering a colony and this was particularly true of one that was only just now being organized. Rosendahl had only a handful of troops at his disposal and this meant his security was largely left in the hands of Yuan who was his buffer against the Entente.

Custer and Jung-Lo scattered Yuan’s army at Jinan and took control of the vital transportation hub. This dangerous situation now escalated into an outright crisis, for the allies, that went beyond the peninsula. It was also the exact kind of situation that Japan had been waiting for and they wasted no time in rushing to the aid of their allies. It would only be a few days before the first Japanese troops began landing at Tsingtao. A week later, a major expedition would follow and, a week after that, the first serious fighting would occur along the Yellow River.

The Entente enjoyed the initial advantages in the fighting and the Sino-American Army was eventually able to compel the Japanese to pull back to their coastal enclaves where they were safe for the time being. The Entente simply did not have the kind of firepower to take the larger cities on the coast. A stalemate developed but, it was not the military aspects of this operation that was really important and this was true for both Shandong and the world in general.

Even as the fighting went on, an American couple that we have already met, Herbert and Lou Hoover, would become involved in the situation. This may never have happened had it not been for the fact that Roosevelt was now President. Hoover had written several letters, to the Root administration, concerning the plight of the average Chinese. They had all gone unanswered and, as the situation would prove, they had never even been opened until Theodore was confronted with this situation. The new President not only sympathized with Hoover, not only approved the plans of this young geologist but, Roosevelt authorized the resources to make it happen.

Sending aid to China was old hat at this point but, the new program, that Hoover was placed in charge of, would be different. In the past, when outsiders had sent aid to China it had always, ultimately, wound up in the hands of China’s corrupt leadership. Very little aid ever reached the Chinese people. This time, with Hoover in charge, the relief effort would actually reach those it was intended for and the effects would be very long lasting. It would slowly begin to transform the political landscape in northern China and make the military operations seem rather small in comparison.

This entire situation would also change a great deal in East Asia, not the least of which was Japan’s eventual control of the coast of Shandong as they ousted the Germans in much the same way that they had been turned out of Port Arthur. This would drive a serious wedge between not only Japan and Germany but with Britain too. It would change the political alliances of the post war world.

All of that was major but, it could not compare to the immediate aftermath. It was in the handling of this situation that Theodore Roosevelt learned his job. The people who worked for him also saw that something new was happening even if they could not quite put their fingers on what that something was. The American people also got their first look at a dynamic new president and it was far more vigorous than any morale tour could ever be. Theodore, personally, would use this situation as a blue print and quickly figure out how to merge his plans with reality. He had always known what he wanted to do and China had taught him how. It was a good thing, for Theodore, that it happened when it did. The first real test of his new policy, ‘The Big Carrot,’ was almost on top of him.