The Players

If anyone did indeed think that war was inevitable then no one spoke up. The truth was that many did feel that a fight of some kind was possible, however, almost all of them seemed to believe that these would be minor regional affairs and certainly not a war of the size and scope that came. These were not just some overly optimistic appraisals either. Any one of these regional conflicts would not have been enough to set the great powers at each others throats. It was a combination of threats, on multiple fronts, between long standing rivalries, that caused the powder keg to explode. These rivalries were both numerous and growing. It is completely possible that had the war not erupted when it did then many of these rivalries would have changed. Certainly the growing power of Germany would have upset the British in many ways but, events overtook the Kaiser’s plans in this arena and they never came to pass.

On the eve of conflict the British were rivals with almost everyone but Germany.  There was long standing animosity between the British and French empires that went back almost a millennium. Boulanger had done much to raise the tension level there. For over a century, at this point, the British had let tensions with the United States simmer due to very profitable trade with it’s former colonies. The birth of the Confederacy changed all of that. Of course the North American situation was minor compared to what the British saw as a serious threat from Russia. This rivalry was relatively new and very real.

It began in the mid 1850’s with the Crimean war. France and Britain had backed Turkey in what was a regional dispute. The Russians suffered a humiliating defeat and mostly blamed the British for this. For the latter half of the 19th century, the Russians were looking for a chance to pay the British back and was quick to confront them in every arena possible. This was mostly in China but, there were other areas of interest where the two powers conflicted as well. The British invasions of Afghanistan were in direct response to threats by the Russians against India. By the 1890’s the discovery of gold in Alaska and Canada put the two powers at odds. Where ever the two powers touched, they were squared off.

This animosity was also long standing. During the American 61, the Russian fleet wintered in New York harbor. They had hoped that the British might go to war with US. If this happened then the Russians were more than ready to jump in against the British. While the Russian naval presence in New York was far from altruistic, it was seen in America as such. It fostered an amiable working relationship between the US and Russia that only grew as time went on. 

This cooperation was never more visible than in the Russian possession of Alaska. This holding was long since considered a liability by the Romanov dynasty. It produced nothing of any value, bordered British Canada, and would be impossible to defend in the event of war with Britain.

In the aftermath of the American 61, the Russians actually offered to sell the province to the United States but the political turmoil prevented this from happening. Despite this the US still became more deeply involved in the region. This came to a head with the discovery gold in the Yukon. American immigrants flooded into the region and with so many of it’s citizens there, the United States began asserting it’s authority and demanding certain rights. The Russians really had no choice but to grant this however they had their own plans for strengthening control of their only territory in the new world. At first these plans were horribly executed but, when the Russians finally got around to them, it put their empire at odds (and dangerously so) with the British.

It took the unexpected death, in 1894, of Emperor Alexander III to put the Russian policies in high gear. Nicholas II not only vowed to continue the conservative policies of his predecessor but, he did so with a gusto that was probably unwise. Nicholas had no real experience as a head of state and that was something that even he recognized to start with. His response was to take an autocratic hard line and attempt to micro manage his empire in a way that Alexander recognized as unwise. He stepped up the pressure on political dissidents that were ripe within his borders, he rendered the elected Duma powerless, and he brought many of the socially progressive policies to a complete halt.

In regards to Alaska, he began to vigorously pursue the policies in place with no forethought as to it’s effects on the world scene. These effects mostly involved one of his chief allies, the United States, and his chief rival, Great Britain. Nicholas took a great deal of the dissidents, that were exiled to Siberia, and transplanted them as permanent residents of Alaska. He emptied jails, he arrested those that were even so much as suspected of treason, and shipped them off to a new continent where they would be of little threat to his rule. The increased Russian population in North America gave him increased claim over the territory. It also gave him an excuse to extend his military presence as well.

Washington was not at all happy with this and they responded by increasing incentives for emigration to Alaska under the rights obtained by the 1876 treaty of St. Petersburg. This caused a great deal of tension in Alaska which had become very violent as clashes between Americans and Russians grew. That was nothing compared to the problems it created with the British.

The discovery of gold in the Yukon had not only made the region valuable but it put the British and Russians squarely at odds over exactly who controlled the upper Yukon valley. The border dispute had never been resolved simply because no one had ever seen any reason to do so. Up till the gold rush there was nothing there of any importance. There were also strategic concerns for the British. They now had to increase an ever growing defense budget, for Canada, in order to counter the sudden presence, in force, of the Russian military. As the 19th century was winding to a close the British Empire was already finding itself taxed on many fronts and it could ill afford to stretch it’s resources even thinner.

This problem was exacerbated by a combination of events on both ends of Africa. In the Sudan an uprising of Islamists had scored some success and even resulted in the execution of a famous British General, known to the press as China Gordon. It was a situation that the British could not easily ignore. That was true even if the Mahdist had not stood in the way of British plans to build a railroad that went from Cairo to Capetown, and London had such ambitions. This situation resulted in several wars in the Sudan and by the late nineties the situation had compelled the British to put together a major expedition to end the conflict once and for all.

In the south, the British found their railroad equally obstructed by the quasi independent Boer states. The first Boer War had not really settled anything and a strong leader, Paul Kruger, had emerged in the Transvaal. The British (notably their most prominent citizen living in Cape Colony, the banker Cecil Rhodes) were well aware that the railroad was only a dream as long as Kruger remained in power. The British were still not willing to go to war over the matter yet, but, Colonial Secretary Chamberlain had already given Rhodes a free hand (or in some cases just turned a blind eye) to do what was needed in order to bring the Boer’s in line.

The result of this cumulated in what was known as the Jameson Raid. It turned into a diplomatic nightmare for the British. The raiders, led by a prominent English Banker from Rhodesia, and trained by none other than Cecil’s brother Frank, attempted to spark an uprising by the mostly British workers in the Transvaal. The raid was a complete disaster, the population showed no signs of wishing to revolt, and the raiders were captured.

A great deal of diplomatic pressure was put on Kruger to release his captives. The British even offered to pay a tidy sum for the raiders, in the guise of damages shelled by out by one of Rhodes companies but, Kruger would not release them and insisted that they be tried in Pretoria as opposed to London. The British found this completely unacceptable and both sides squared off for what could possibly grow into a shooting war.

While Kruger could have greatly benefited financially, and in prestige, by striking a deal with the British, he declined the offer. At the time it was not well known but, his reasons for doing this were that he had already struck a deal with someone else. Kruger could have possibly turned to Germany for support against the British Empire but, in the late 1890’s, the Germans were not in much of a position to lend more than moral support. The Americans and French were an entirely different matter.

The French were not the only ones to have shady characters, such as Bonchamps, who were running around Africa. A former American cavalry officer, by the name of John Blake, had been on the Dark Continent, looking for the legendary Solomon’s mines, when his government asked him to become it’s unofficial representative to the Kruger government. Blake, an Irish-American with no love for the British Empire, was reinstated as a Colonel in the reserves and would later become the military attaché to the Transvaal. For the time being though, he was only acting as an unofficial representative.

Long before the Jameson Raid he had gained the ear of Kruger and used the Confederate participation in the First Boer War to his full advantage. Kruger may or may not have been convinced that the Confederacy was his true enemy but, the offers of aid from Washington had his full attention. At the time, Boer artillery consisted of some old guns that were of French design and Blake also made it clear that he could supply those with as many rounds as required. In the end it was the promise of money and the pledge of support from the French and American fleets that swayed Kruger over to being sympathetic to American overtures.

Kruger was an astute politician and probably realized that both the Americans and French had their own reasons for wishing an alliance but, he could not ignore the advantages it gave him. When the Jameson Raiders struck and the diplomatic crisis ensued, the British were completely unaware that Kruger had a stronger card to play. He did so to his full advantage and before the end of 96, in exchange for holding the prisoners in a Pretoria jail, he had brand new American rifles of the rapid firing, lever action, kind that were now standard in the US Army. He also had new financing that allowed him to discontinue the only other option open to him which was beg for scraps from the table of the British Empire. These actions made the Boer states independent in more than just name and, consequently, it made another war in South Africa a foregone conclusion.

Yet this was somehow overlooked in the press and even by the British government back in London. At the time they were actively engaged in all out war in the Sudan, had pressing concerns on the Alaskan frontier, as well as a rapidly deteriorating situation in China, that was making all of their other crisis’ look pale in comparison. When coupled with a new (and considered unstable) ruler in Germany it was no wonder that British diplomats were suddenly hard pressed on every front.

It was a situation that was greatly fostered by the Americans and French and exacerbated at every opportunity. The Kaiser almost seemed to be a willing participant in this process with his series of diplomatic blunders. To say that Wilhelm was a man ruled by his passions was an understatement. He quite often followed his emotions more than even Nicholas of Russia.  This resulted in a series of quite confusing moves on the international stage that were fully exploited by Boulanger as the French sought to isolate Germany from it‘s potential allies. The most notable of these was the Kruger Telegram.

Wilhelm promptly congratulated Paul Kruger on his capture of Jameson and his raiders. While this seemed to the Kaiser to be nothing more than a hardy slap on the back for a little guy who had stood up to a giant, in Britain it was seen as much more. The French and American newspapers did not miss the opportunity to blow the entire affair out of proportion and it left the British with the distinct impression that it was Germany, and not France, behind the deteriorating situation in South Africa. So successful was this ploy that even years after the war there were former British officials that still believed this to be the case.

The blunders in Africa and the Americas were nothing compared to those being made in China. There was also a great deal more at stake for everyone involved. The British had gotten in early on what would eventually become an all out land grab. Chinese products such as porcelain and silk were in high demand in Europe and China’s endless sea of humanity was an important market to sell in. While other European powers such as France, Germany, Austria, and Russia were making in roads to this market the British had long since paved a highway.

Naturally the British jealously guarded their advantage while other nations sought to forge their own. All the while the Chinese government was becoming increasingly impotent through unchecked corruption and an inefficient bureaucracy. If earlier wars with the British, and the most recent war with the French, had not illustrated this to everyone then the next war would.

The Quing Dynasty had sought to modernize it’s military (or at least parts of it) by purchasing arms and warships from European sources, primarily German. By 1894 the Chinese Navy, known as the Beiyang Fleet (named after the military district it was based in) was considered to be the strongest in all of East Asia. A war with Japan would soon prove otherwise. The Japanese, long considered inferiors by the Chinese, destroyed the Chinese fleet with ease despite the fact that Japan had no battleships. Japanese armies were equally successful on land and the Quing Dynasty was forced to capitulate.

The effects of the war resonated far beyond it’s two principle combatants. The most immediate effect was that China stopped depending on Germany for military assistance. This would begin a disastrous chain of events while possession of the principle Japanese objective during the war, Port Arthur in Manchuria, would also lead to another. The Japanese had seized the city from China by force of arms but, European meddling forced them to concede the city to international control. In less than two years the city would be occupied by a Russian Army and an American Fleet. This naturally left the Japanese feeling cheated and they vowed revenge.

The most profound effects were inside China itself. The man most responsible for Chinese Foreign Policy, Li Hongzhang, had not only negotiated the treaty that ended the war with Japan but, he had led the armies in the field as well. When combined with the fact that he had negotiated every treaty that ended in defeat for China, his influence in the Chinese court diminished. He still had some clout due to his success with internal policies and his ability to successfully squash the ever constant revolts that had plagued China for the last few decades. His defeat was not total but it was enough.

The Emperor at the time, a twenty-four year old reformist named Guangxu, had ascended to throne at the ripe old age of four. He had really only begun to exert his power in the last few years and his idea’s conflicted greatly with his very conservative regent, the Dowager Empress Cixi. The two were headed for a confrontation and it was one, that many agreed, was out of Guangxu’s class. The war with Japan created an opportunity for both Guangxu, and the United States.

Up till this point, the United States had found itself caught in a strangle hold when dealing with China. Just like the Confederacy, it had seen the markets of China as crucial to it’s well being. Unlike the Confederacy, the US did not have British bases or help when it came to operating in East Asia. The US was restricted to the use of Russian bases in Alaska and Siberia (both at considerable cost) in order to maintain a line of trade with the far east. None of these bases were ideal since they were either poor harbors or iced over half of the year. What the US needed were Chinese ports open to them since no European power, even their allies the French, were likely to give them the same deal that the CSA was getting from Britain. 

While it was true that in 1895 the United States had very little diplomatic presence, and almost no military, in the Far East, this actually came to work in their favor. There were a large number of private American Citizens in China and they had made a more favorable impression on the Chinese intellectuals than had the other “foreign devils.” 

Following the policy laid down by John Hay, Bryan’s secretary of state, Thomas Bayard, initiated what was probably the most crucial action of his tenure. It is doubtful that Bayard even realized what his actions would start but, he did so none the less. Using private contacts combined with a willingness to use what was a seemingly bottomless check book, Bayard began to feel out the Chinese political landscape. As he probably saw it, he was only keeping in step with Bryan’s overall attitude towards China, which was euphemized as “Christianize and protect.”

At first the doors seemed to be completely closed and it’s doubtful that Bayard came to any grief. The Chinese court was extremely difficult to penetrate due mainly to it’s own arrogance, but also, with a little help from the British. There were others in China more than willing to deal with the Americans, however. One of these was a court scribe and outspoken reformist by the name of Kang Youwei. He, like many Chinese, saw America in the light of being as much a victim of European Imperialism as China was. He connected with the United States on almost an idealistic level.

In the final year of the Bryan administration a Doctor from Philadelphia, named Robert Coltman, obtained an appointment to teach medicine at the Tung Wen College in Peking. This was one of a handful of western styled schools that the Emperor had managed to get started despite the constant interference of the Dowager Empress. Being at the school put Coltman in contact with a great number of western educated Chinese. Soon he came into contact with Kang and was surprised to learn that Kang had sought him out.

The word was getting around that the Americans were interested in talking to the Chinese court and Kang had found himself a channel that led directly to the emperor. As Coltman wrote in his journal, he never did understand why it was that Kang thought he could help. Coltman really was there to teach medicine and for no other reason. Even so, he sought out the first American diplomats he could find and related the story to them. It would be nearly six months before anything became of it and by that time a new President would be sitting in the White House. That man’s name was Elihu Root.